The three numbers
1. What the panels make
PVGIS, the European Commission's solar database, gives a south-facing roof at 35° about 959 kWh a year per kW on the Birkenhead side of the peninsula and about 980 in the west. Our worked example uses a 4 kW system on the Birkenhead side, which comes to about 3,836 kWh a year. An east or west roof makes about 80% of that; see the peninsula map for your area and roof.
2. How much of it you use at home
This is the number most quotes gloss over. Panels make most of their power around the middle of the day and in summer; most households use most in the evening and in winter. Whatever you do not use as it is made goes out to the grid. Ofgem, the energy regulator, treats 2,500 kWh a year as typical use for a home on a single-rate tariff. In our example the panels make more than that in a year, yet a household out at work all day might use only a quarter of what the panels make, and one with someone home most days perhaps a third or more. A battery stores daytime surplus for the evening and can lift the share used at home well past half.
3. What electricity costs and earns
Every unit you use from the panels is one you do not buy. Under Ofgem's price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 the average unit rate for electricity paid by direct debit is 26.32p per kWh. Every unit you export earns an export tariff under the Smart Export Guarantee: every large supplier must offer one above zero, the better fixed rates are around 12 to 13p per kWh, and some suppliers pay much less. That is why a unit used at home is worth roughly twice a unit exported.
Year one, worked through
| Household | Used at home | Exported | Share of a 2,500 kWh year | Value at 12p export | Value at 4p export |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panels only, out most weekdays (25% of output used) | 959 kWh | 2,877 kWh | 38% | £598 | £367 |
| Panels only, someone home in the day (35% of output used) | 1,343 kWh | 2,493 kWh | 54% | £653 | £453 |
| Panels and a battery (55% of output used) | 2,110 kWh | 1,726 kWh | 84% | £762 | £624 |
Assumptions, all stated: output 3,836 kWh a year (PVGIS 5.3, south at 35°, Birkenhead side); household use 2,500 kWh (Ofgem's typical value); electricity saved at 26.32p per kWh (Ofgem cap, GB average, direct debit, October to December 2026); exports paid at 12p or 4p per kWh. The share used at home is an assumption for illustration, kept below 75% of the household's use without a battery and 90% with one. Year one only: prices will change. Figures checked 3 November 2026.
Two things follow. First, the export rate matters almost as much as the panels: moving from a 4p to a 12p export tariff adds about £140 to £230 a year in these examples, for the price of a phone call to your supplier. Second, using more at home is worth more than anything else you can change: running the washing machine and dishwasher in the middle of the day, or adding a battery, moves units from the cheap column to the dear one.
Think of it as a yearly value, not a payback date
We do not give payback periods on this site. A payback date depends on what electricity will cost for the next ten or twenty years, which export tariff you will be on, whether you will buy an electric car or a heat pump, and how long you will stay in the house. Nobody can promise those. What you can work out today is the first year's value with your own tariff and your own habits, and set it against the price of the system. If you plan to stay in the house for many years and the first-year value looks sensible against the price, that is a reasonable basis for a decision.
Two dates are fixed. Installation is VAT-free until 31 March 2027, and from 1 April 2027 the rate is 5%. And Ofgem's next price cap, for January to March 2027, will be announced in late November 2026; check the current unit rate before you rely on our sums.
When solar is not worth it
- A north-facing roof. At a normal pitch it gives under 60% of a south roof's output. Few households should put panels there alone.
- Heavy shade. Tall trees, a taller neighbour to the south or a hill can cut output more than any difference between the west and east Wirral. A good installer will model it; ask to see the shading assumed, along with the other questions to put to any installer.
- A roof near the end of its life. If the slates or tiles will need replacing within a few years, do the roof first: lifting and refitting panels later costs money.
- Moving soon. If you expect to sell within a couple of years, you may not see enough of the value, though a buyer may welcome the panels.
- No control of the roof. Flat owners and tenants usually need the freeholder's or landlord's consent. Plug-in panels on a balcony are a smaller option since August 2026; see flats and plug-in solar.
Myths you will hear on the Wirral
- "It's too cloudy up here." Panels run on daylight. The Wirral's figures are ordinary for the north-west of England, and the nearest Met Office sunshine record, at Hawarden across the Dee, averages about 1,570 hours of bright sunshine a year.
- "They don't work in winter." They work, but they make much less: about 28 to 34 kWh per kW in December and January against 125 or more in May. Plan on the year, not the month.
- "Sea air will ruin them." Not with the right parts. See coastal homes for the salt-mist test and fixings to ask for.
- "You need a battery for solar to be worth it." No. A battery raises the share you use at home, but it also adds cost. Many households start with panels and a battery-ready inverter.
- "There's a grant that pays for it." Only for households who qualify for the Warm Homes: Local Grant. Everyone else pays, with 0% VAT until 31 March 2027. See funding.
Doing the sums for your own home
- Find your yearly use on your last annual statement or in your supplier's app.
- Take the predicted output from your quotes, and check it against our map for your area and roof direction.
- Guess honestly how much of the output you would use as it is made: a quarter if the house is empty all day, a third or more if someone is in, more with a battery.
- Multiply the units used by your unit rate, the units exported by your export rate, and add them.
- Compare that first-year value with the price, and with what else the money could do.
If you would like a second pair of eyes on a quote's figures, send it through the form below and we will reply by email.
Read next
Sources for this page
- PVGIS 5.3 photovoltaic estimates, European Commission Joint Research Centre
- Ofgem: energy price cap unit rates and standing charges
- Ofgem: typical domestic consumption values, decision (May 2026)
- Ofgem: Smart Export Guarantee
- DESNZ: solar PV cost data (2025/26)
- HMRC VAT Notice 708/6: the zero rate on installed solar panels and batteries
- Met Office: Hawarden Airport climate averages 1991–2020
Figures were read at these sources on 3 November 2026. Spotted something out of date? Tell us through the form below.